More recent studies have started to use physical data, such as observed wind speeds, to generate a more objective damage function for the impacts of tropical cyclones (e.g., Hsiang 2010; Strobl 2011; Felbermayr and Grschl 2014; Bakkensen etal. The results indicate that the policies should focus on the direct costs of tropical cyclones. This is not surprising since the manufacturing (D) sector needs a lot of input materials from other sectors (Sieg etal. Tropical cyclones are large, cyclonically rotating wind systems that form over tropical or sub-tropical oceans and are mostly concentrated on months in summer or early autumn in both hemispheres (Korty 2013 ). Hurricane Florence's Economic Damage on Carolinas, Virginia, and US While there exists a lot of theoretical work on the importance of cross-sectional linkages in consequence of a shock (see e.g., Dupor 1999; Horvath 2000; Acemoglu etal. 2019). Since the EORA26 database also offers the data decomposed for 26 sectors, this section demonstrates the results of model 6 in more detail. The meteorological history of Hurricane Florence spanned 22 days from its inception on August 28, 2018, to its dissipation on September 18. This paper contributes to two strands of the literature. 2014). On Sunday it moved on from Zimbabwe to dump heavy rain on some areas of South Africa's Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, authorities there said. Within the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors, the negative effects become less pronounced with a zero effect being present after fouryears, while the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sectoral aggregate experiences a persistent negative growth even after 20years. In total, I exclude five country-year observations from my analysis: Dominican Republic 1979, Grenada 2004, Montserrat 1989, Myanmar 1977, and Saint Lucia 1980. 2019). Their destructiveness has three sources: damaging winds, storm surges, and heavy rainfalls. By calculating the annual sectoral GDP per capita growth rate, I lose the first year of observation of the panel. However, on average, the previously found effects can be replicated for 12 out of the 15 robustness tests.Footnote 35 Given the reduced quality of the data and a shorter time span (20years), the InputOutput analysis still offers solid results. Most worryingly, the majority of all sectors experience delayed negative effects underpinning how far away the international community remains from a build-back better or recovery to trend situation for tropical cyclone-affected economies. Environ Sci Technol 46(15):83748381, Lenzen M, Moran D, Kanemoto K, Geschke A (2013) Building Eora: a global multi-region input-output database at high country and sector resolution. J Econ Geogra 20(3):857877, NHC (2016) National hurricane center forecast verification. Best track data are a postseason reanalysis from different available data sources, including satellites, ships, aviation, and surface measurements, that are used to describe the position and intensity of tropical cyclones (Kruk etal. Better post-disaster assistance is not the only required improvement; policymakers should also find ways to better prepare the affected sectors of their economy for possible effects of tropical cyclones before they strike. The remaining variables are defined as in Eq. This cost could climb higher as many rivers have yet to crest and may yet cause additional flooding. Ten mass-feeding kitchens were set up. The results of the InputOutput analysis, summarized in Appendix A.6.2, are a little less robust. Furthermore, the results of the randomization test show that the \(H_0\) of no effect of tropical cyclone damage can be rejected at the 1% and 5% level of confidence for the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing and wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sectors, respectively. I also tested for lagged cumulative effects. Moreover, extreme damaging tropical cyclones are relatively rare. This paper examines the current, lagged, and indirect effects of tropical cyclones on annual sectoral growth worldwide. The main causal identification stems from the occurrence of tropical cyclones, which are unpredictable in time and location (NHC 2016) and vary randomly within geographic regions (Dell etal. After one year, we can also detect a positive effect in the construction sector, which is not surprising given the higher number of orders due to reconstruction efforts. Flooding could prove devastating. In a single country study on floods in Germany, Sieg etal. Last week, the East Coast prepared for Hurricane Florence, which roared through the Carolinas and Georgia. In order to design effective mitigation and adaptation disaster policies to this threat, it is important to understand the economic impact of natural disasters. In a similar manner, Mohan and Strobl (2017) find evidence that a positive growth effect of the construction sector, financed by international aid or government programs, lead to a fast recovery of South-Pacific Islands after tropical cyclones.Footnote 27, Significant effects of tropical cyclone damage on disaggregated InputOutput coefficients. The damaging winds are responsible for serious destruction of buildings and vegetation. J Econ Lit 52(3):740798, Dupor B (1999) Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models. Additionally, this finding undermines the urgency to analyze past influences beyond one or two years when examining the economic impacts of natural disasters. About how did tropical cyclone eloise impact the economy. I expand their approach by not looking at overall GDP but at disaggregated GDP responses for seven sectoral aggregates. For example, Loayza etal. Additionally, the lagged dependent variable controls for a sluggish adjustment to shocks of the individual sector input composition. Tropical Cyclone Eloise, which hit southeastern Africa in January 2021, caused widespread flooding and landslides, resulting in at least 21 deaths and. NBER Working Paper 20352. http://www.nber.org/papers/w20352.pdf, Islam N (1995) Growth empirics: a panel data approach. J Afr Econ 17(Supplement2):ii7ii49, Cole MA, Elliott RJR, Okubo T, Strobl E (2019) Natural disasters and spatial heterogeneity in damages: the birth, life and death of manufacturing plants. The weighted tropical cyclone damage variables are orthogonal to economic growth as well as the InputOutput coefficients, and the panel approach allows me to identify the causal effect.

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